Bush misses an historic opportunity:
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Today's Featured Analysis
Mexico-Brazil Alignment: Fox's New Foreign Policy Goal
Summary
Mexican President Vicente Fox has announced a strategic alignment
between Mexico and Brazil to advance Latin America's common
interests and to support each country's efforts to secure
permanent seats in the United Nations and Group of Eight. From
the view of Mexican and Brazilian policymakers, the alignment
makes sense. However, it also reflects Fox's frustration with the
Bush administration's indifference to his efforts to bind Mexico
more closely to the United States through a bilateral immigration
agreement.
Analysis
Mexican President Vicente Fox began his six-year term in office
in August 2000 by announcing a new foreign policy that would
align Mexico more closely with the United States and "decouple"
the country from the rest of Latin America. However, Fox reversed
course this week, unveiling through an interview with the
Financial Times an assertive new foreign policy that aligns his
country with Brazil, proposes Mexican membership in the Group of
Eight and seeks a permanent seat on a restructured and expanded
U.N. Security Council.
In a separate interview with the Washington Post, Fox also urged
the United States to implement a bilateral immigration agreement
that would legalize the status of more than 3 million Mexicans
living in the United States without resident visas. The pact also
would provide renewable temporary visas to tens of thousands of
migrant workers who work in the United States for only a few
months each year. Moreover, Fox openly criticized U.S. President
George W. Bush's lack of interest in discussing any immigration
agreement since Sept. 11, 2001, even though Mexican officials
have done everything the Bush administration has requested to
reinforce security along the border.
Mexico's desire to become a permanent member of both the G8 and
the U.N. Security Council is not recent. The country's foreign
policy elites have dreamed of it for many years. However, Fox's
decision to align Mexico with Brazil under President Luiz Inacio
"Lula" da Silva -- so that both countries can "speak for the
region with one voice" -- is a new development that could affect
Mexican relations with the United States and some U.S. interests
in Latin America.
From Mexico and Brazil's perspective, it makes sense for Latin
America's two largest economies to align more closely in pursuit
of shared economic priorities, as in seeking to dismantle U.S.,
European and Asian agricultural trade barriers. However, Fox's
decision to align Mexico with Brazil also reflects his deep
frustration for what he perceives as the Bush administration's
indifference to his efforts to secure an immigration agreement
for Mexican nationals working in the United States.
Fox defined such an agreement at the outset of his government as
his foreign policy priority -- the legacy of his presidency.
However, more than two years of lobbying have not budged the
issue in Washington, especially since Sept. 11. As a result, by
aligning Mexico with Brazil, Fox is seeking to rebuild his own
battered image inside Mexico, where many critics think he flirted
too much with Washington and got nothing in return.
Meanwhile, Fox is playing catch-up with da Silva who, since
assuming the presidency less than six months ago, has floated
several major initiatives. These include relaunching the South
America's Mercosur customs union, negotiating strategic alliances
with the Argentine and Venezuelan governments and giving each of
those governments $1 billion in credit to finance exports through
the state-owned National Bank for Economic and Social Development
(BNDES).
Fox's alignment with da Silva in fact could improve U.S.-
Brazilian relations, since Mexico would be in a position to bring
Brasilia and Washington closer on regional trade-related issues
that also interest Mexican investors and exporters. However, a
tight alignment on issues that concern Brasilia -- such as
Colombia and Cuba -- could bring Mexico into diplomatic conflict
with the United States.
The escalating Colombian conflict and its potential impact on the
Brazilian Amazon region might worry da Silva. However, he is even
more concerned about U.S. military aid flowing into Colombia, and
sees the aid as the potential precursor to an expanding U.S.
military presence in the Andean region. Like many Brazilians, da
Silva and his foreign policy advisers view such a possibility as
a threat to their country's territorial integrity along its
largely unguarded western borders, where the Andes mountain range
starts to rise out of the Amazon rain forest.
As a result, da Silva might seek Mexican support in opposing U.S.
efforts to expand its military aid either to Colombia or other
Andean ridge countries. This could place Fox in a bind, since he
has pledged to cooperate with Washington in the war on al Qaeda;
the U.S. State Department has designated Colombia's rebel and
paramilitary groups as international terrorist groups. It's also
likely that da Silva will expect Fox's support, or at least his
silence, as Brazil's president seeks to include Cuban leader
Fidel Castro as a permanent participant in future Group of Rio
summits.
Fox's new foreign policy, and his new alignment with da Silva,
will be on display at this weekend's G8 summit in the French city
of Evian. Both leaders will attend at the personal invitation of
the summit's host, French President Jacques Chirac. Fox will meet
privately with Bush, but also has meetings scheduled with the
leaders of France, China, India and Britain.
Fox also will join da Silva at Evian to propose the creation of
an international infrastructure development fund for Latin
America, which da Silva defined on May 27 as an essential
prerequisite for moving forward with the United States on talks
to create a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). Like other
Latin American countries, Mexico's infrastructure is inadequate
for the country's growth needs, and financial constraints limit
the capacity of regional governments to build new infrastructure.
As a result, a development fund like the one da Silva will
propose likely would appeal to Mexican officials.
Despite his new foreign policy, Fox still considers the United
States to be Mexico's most important economic ally and views
strong bilateral ties with Washington as a foreign policy
priority. However, a key goal of Fox's policy is to diversify the
country's trade, investment and political relations to reduce his
country's high dependency on the United States for nearly 90
percent of Mexican exports.
While that economic dependency is unlikely to drop much -- even
with an aggressive trade and investment diversification strategy
-- a foreign policy that keeps the United States at a greater
distance and more strongly asserts Mexico's independence likely
will win political kudos from nationalist Mexican voters who have
been upset since mid-2000 by what they perceived as Mexico City's
excessively close alignment with Washington.
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Now Stratfor is known to make mountains out of molehills from the need to sound profound daily without appearing to repeat themselves. However they are understating this one. Bush is pissing away a historic opportunity. There simply is no place more important to the long-term security of the US than Mexico. For the first time in a century we have a Mexican President willing to really work with us instead of playing the nationalist card for domestic consumption and we piss it away over short-term US domestic politics. Yes, doing a deal with Mexico could have cost him his tax cut and perhaps his Iraq war as well. History will judge our Shrub’s lack of wisdom…sad part is I voted for the clown knowing what he was and will probably have to hold my nose and do so again next year.
Scott
posted by scott 7:41 AM