Scott: So many talking heads, so little intelligence.
1. Had FNC and CNN alternately on since late afternoon. Mixed in with more fatuous twaddle than are found in the second set of Star Wars movies are nuggets of wisdom. Pity none of the talking blow dried heads seem able to tell gold from dross.
2. Forget prior records of what happened to candidates who won NH, skipped states, or sucked their thumb in some prior year. We keep changing the rules, the scheduling, the laws on campaign finance. The technology keeps changing the world we live in. So claiming that no one who won IA and NH has ever lost a nomination is fatuous twaddle. Prior to this year you did not go from those two into a seven state Tuesday next week. Prior to the internet and paypal there was no way to finance a campaign that was clearly trailing.
3. Dean is the only one with the money to go 50 state and he’s already admitted that he won’t. Going to bag MO and SC to concentrate on NM and AZ, get a win someplace, and survive until ME, WA and MI.
4. NH voted for its neighbors. Finals still aren’t in but in a six man race 65% ish went to the two neighbors, Dean and Kerry. This is regional favorite son land. Also notice that Kerry did the worst in the tax suburbs along the MA border who know him best.
5. The media gang up on Dean continues. Dean’s comeback this time was better than Clinton’s in 1992 and both networks made sure to say they were rejecting the analogy. Dean is the anti-McCain. McCain got every break because the boys on the bus liked him. The press despise Dean. He left Dowd hanging on a phone call for a scheduled interview and stiffed her. Had Hannety on while doing chores today. Dean stiffed him on a scheduled interview. Now you don’t have to love either media person to say this is not professional behavior.
6. Except for Edwards 20’s populist speech every one of the others now sound like Dean except Lieberman. Dean’s activists have defined the race even if they haven’t won.
7. Lieberman in single digits is essentially dead. He seems to be talking about turning this into an ideological crusade but I doubt the money will last for long.
8. Clark is gut shot. A tie for 3rd with the boy wonder from NC means he needs a pair of wins next week just to avoid imploding.
9. Edwards has higher positives than anybody including the ones who beat him. Essentially he is everybody’s 2nd-3rd choice. So in a long campaign of attrition he has the best chance to win by the others imploding. Also he has a much shorter record to be picked apart and doesn’t say much on the stump beyond repeating the speech as relentlessly as Reagan did. His problem is that it looks like his party is getting ready to write off his region.
10. Kerry’s money problems have already led to his campaign people saying MO is the target and they are prepared to concede SC in all probability. Spin will be Edwards as favorite son. Fact is that even with raising $1M since IA he just doesn’t have the cash to do a 7 state press next week. So in a fluid situation where many voters have very shallow loyalties he’s got to risk blowing his media moment from lack of cash and time. The schedule was tailor made for Hillary and doesn’t work for anyone else.
11. Kerry’s free pass is over. He’s got decades of a public record. He’s the official front runner. He’s got a higher lifetime ADA rating than Ted Kennedy. The media gave him a free pass for two weeks by focusing on the horse race. Now competitive pressures plus leaks from the other campaigns will put every word and action on page one.
12. Very interesting poll number. Some 35% of the exit poll answers said they felt Dean lacked the character/personality to be President. That is an appalling high set of negatives.
13. Dean carried those Democrats who were concerned with the issues. Kerry carried those who wanted a winner. Just another way of saying Kerry’s support is extremely shallow.
14. From here on in only two numbers matter – who has money [in the bank AND coming in] and delegate count. The numbers are there but they aren’t shall we say stressed as they have no ‘visuals’.
posted by scott 9:05 PM