(http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gk40WlDld1Q4RJmhyoWsNSzfvrpAD8UST9M00)
So here we are. The Serbs vote in a sane government and their reward is Kosovar independence. UDI. No negotiations. No prior deal for the fate of the remaining Serb encalves. No prior deal for the Serb monestaries and historic sites. The Albanians win and they lose. What Belgrade wants doesn't matter. What Moscow wants doesn't matter. And the US and much of Europe continue the insult by recognizing this without any delay or any face saving gestures. Will they respond the same way if the Serb Republic of Bosnia does a UDI and petitions for union with Serbia? Will they do the same if Russia recognzies Abzakia and South Osettia as independent as offers them treaties of protection? How about Syria in Lebanon? There are three theories here and they all stink of rot.
1. The US and EU think they own the world and can do whatever strikes their fancy qithout consequence or consultation.
2. The Albanians are 'special children' in the same sense Palestinians are. They are violent loons who must be appeased at all costs. Better anything than another million Albanian refugees fleeing west.
3. Having done a 'Wag the Dog' war to create Kosovo the West would rather make a worse mess than admit prior error.
Pick your poison but none of these [or any point in between] makes for a better world. We are living in a multipolar world. Several of the rising powers [Russia, India, China] worry that these precidents will be applied to them. All have secessionist movements to contend with and arbitrary borders. Russia also has a lot of pan-Slav, pan-Orthodox baggage. This is not the weak Wild East kleptocracy of Yeltsin. Putin may not be a democrat or a liberal but he has been an effectual autocrat. Russia has paid off its foreign debt and begun to rebuild its military. Until the oil and gas run dry [and yes I am aware of all the infrastructure problems of the Russian energy industry] they will have the money to make trouble. They are already pissed as hell over everything that has happened since 1989. Please tell me why giving their sense of grevience another ralling point is so wise. At some point Russia does more than bark and snarl. We have a KGB regime there. They know how to set up partially deniable terrorist movements. Do we want to give them a Serb cover to provo operations in the Balkans?Labels: Bill's Ebola Laced Chickens Come Home To Roost
posted by scott 5:34 PM