If you doubt the inability of our MSM to cover anything more complex than a car crash read the daily fare on real clear politics. This is the culling of the best of the best of professional political commentary...and 99.9% of it is feces written to fill collumns under deadline.
1. Every two delegate swing in the trench warfare between probable President Hussein and the Ice Bitch is written as if it were the USSC deciding Gore v Bush. This is trench warfare. Hillary has zero chance of catching Obama in elected delegates. The quirks in the system simply do not allow it. She dug this hole and has no way out. She has an outside chance of catching him in total votes - a lot depends on what are done with the Michigan and Florida results. As the powers that be are still trying to kick that can down the road hoping that it will all be rendered moot by her dropping out no joy there. She has a less than 50/50 but real chance of catching him in the RCP tracking poll of polls. THIS is her big chance and the rest is smoke and mirrors. IF buyers remorse starts to set in on Obama and IF she is a clear beyond margin of error winner she could just win ugly on super delegate votes. So watch the RCP polls and watch the supers. She can keep this up as long as her supers don't defect. She can afford to lose an establishment black or two a week. THAT just paints Obama ever more as the great black hope instead of the transracial messiah leading the US to a new post-partisan politics. If the rest of her supers start fleeing in droves the game is over. Now there is a chicken and egg here. The supers mostly know each other at a remove or two [six degrees of Kevin Bacon and all that]. So if the uncommitted supers and Hilalry's break for Obama a rush could become a flood and it is over. So all the other clutter and chatter is of importance only to the degree it moves a noticeable body of supers to bolt to Obama. Which leads to the dog that didn't bark in the night. The protracted campaign is universally labled not good for Democrats. Standard wisdom. Yet the supers haven't ended it all and they could. Leads to the question of why. Yes, there is the Identity politics of knifing either the first serious woman or the first serious black. But they can all read the handwriting on the wall and know they will have to make this decision. There is no way to force Obama out. His activists will go to Denver and demand the nomination. So the choices are forcing out the Ice Bitch [who has no mobs to mobilize in the streets of Colorado] or letting it play out. What is it about Obama that makes them hesitate? I can speculate but the Chicago dirt simply doesn't seem decisive in a good Democratic year.
2. McCain is like the man rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic after it hit the iceberg. His campaign is out of money and with the nomination decided out of free media. He has all the charisma of a turnip. The door bell ringing part of his base may in the end reluctantly vote for him but are not about to ring door bells. W beat a deeply flawed Kerry by spending 4 years organizing an army of door bell ringers. Forget his poll numbers and be objective. Once the Dems pick a nominee the MSM are going to be doing all the metastories about hsitoric march of progress for a first [fill in the blank]. And McCain offers a tired old white man who when quizzed on economics said he knew little about it. ROFL.
ScottLabels: The drivel of pundits
posted by scott 7:44 PM