(http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/16/us/politics/16web-hulse.html?ref=politics)
The spiraling towards dead GOP has managed to lose three special elections back to back. One can make nit picks district by district after the fact. Two of the three candidates were abysmal. The Illinois district was trending Dem. The Louisiana district took in more Katrina refugees than anyplace in the US and thus was not the same district. The MS district nominated a Republican from the Memphis burbs who failed to excite the yellow dog older white Dems needed to take the district. One can always make such distinctions after the fact. They are fun and have some surface validity.
However there are two metapoints here:
1. W has near destroyed the GOP brand the past few years. The tone deaf inside the Beltway GOP leadership and endless drum beat of scandals [personal, sexual, financial] are just the icing on the cake. The core is that the GOP coalition is made up of pieces that don't much like each other. Once you get past foreign and defense policy the economic conservatives and country club types have little sympathy for the small government Jeffersonians and suburban libertarians and all hve near loathing for the religious and traditional cons who dominate the grass roots party machinery. W's brain dead Iraq war and Wilsonian foreign policy has turned the traditional national security plus into a minus. Katrina turned the usual governance plus [even people who didn't like Republicans mostly thought they were better managers] into a minus. W's lack of interest in or skills on economics has allowed the subprime meltdown that now puts economics back on the table. And even much of the core GOP voter base voted GOP despite the party's economics not because of them. Noonan did a good piece (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121088369408596389.html?mod=todays_columnists) on this. W seems content since the 2004 election to do his own thing and the brain dead robots in the Congressional GOP seem content to go down with the ship.
2. As stupid as the GOP has been that is how smart the Dems have been. They are back to picking candidates who fit their house districts and states instead of the reverse. They have managed to control both Houses of Congress for almost two years without letting the voters figure out that they now have a good share of the blame for the current mess. W's deer in the headlights ineptitude, tone deaf public speaking and simple disinterest in whether the party dies with him have enabled the ruling party to run against itself. The fun ends next January when Obama is sworn in and the media admit the Democrats are in charge. Odds are the Congressional GOP goes fully oppositional. They have endured 8 years of it and know the playbook. Question becomes if the Dems learned anything from 93-94 when they made their Blue Dogs and DLC types repeatedly walk the plank to pass liberal measures. Pelosi has surprised me and been a pro about not pushing her moderates to take votes that would be unpopular back home. Will she be willing and able to do the same under President Obama? Don't ask/don't tell may be the first clue.Labels: MS-1 and back to the future
posted by scott 1:32 AM